Lean Inventories Meet Tight Trucking Capacity as Imports Stay Quiet

Import Demand Stays Quiet While Trucking Capacity Quietly Disappears

The U.S. freight market is experiencing an unusual and potentially dangerous bifurcation. While inbound ocean container volumes remain subdued at 1,715 TEUs on the Inbound Ocean TEUs Volume Index—roughly 36% below the June 2021 peak of 2,692—this apparent weakness masks a far more troubling structural shift: the trucking market is simultaneously contracting after three years of capacity erosion, creating a supply-demand mismatch that could severely disrupt operations during peak season.

On the surface, subdued import volumes seem manageable. However, this softness reflects deliberate supply chain strategy, not economic malaise. Throughout 2024 and 2025, shippers adopted aggressive just-in-case ordering strategies to hedge against service disruptions and tariff uncertainty. The Logistics Managers' Index shows two distinct inventory-building periods since 2019—the dramatic buildup of early 2022 and the tariff-driven restocking of 2024. As tariff concerns dissipated in late 2025, the market normalized into something deceptively simple: ordering patterns that align almost perfectly with inventory levels.

This alignment represents the adoption of lean, just-in-time inventory practices—a model that minimizes warehousing costs but offers virtually no shock absorption capability. For supply chain teams, this represents a calculated bet that transportation service will remain consistent and reliable. That bet is increasingly difficult to defend.

The Structural Capacity Crisis Beneath the Market

The real story emerges when examining the Sonar Truckload Volume Index (STVI) and rejection rates. While STVI volumes currently sit at levels seen multiple times over the past few years, rejection rates tell a completely different story. Carriers are rejecting freight at significantly higher rates than during comparable volume periods in 2022 or 2023—not because demand is cyclically soft, but because available capacity has genuinely evaporated.

Three years of quiet capacity loss, accelerated by regulatory enforcement pressure, has created a market where the absolute number of freight tenders remains superficially stable, but the proportion of those tenders that carriers can actually accept has collapsed. This is a structural shift, not a cyclical tightening. The trucking market is emerging from one of its longest downturns on record already constrained, with minimal flexibility to absorb demand surges.

The implications become acute when considering peak import season (July-August), when transcontinental freight traditionally moves via intermodal—ocean container loaded directly onto a chassis and truck for final delivery. Intermodal's competitive advantage depends on consistent transit times and the interchangeability of intermodal with pure truckload service. As trucking capacity constrains and linehaul delays accumulate, intermodal loses both advantages. Transit times lengthen, and shippers cannot substitute trucking capacity because none exists. The "free-time" typically available in intermodal contracts evaporates, and detention charges mount.

Operational Implications and Strategic Preparation

For supply chain professionals, the convergence of lean inventory practices with constrained trucking capacity creates an operating environment that has no historical parallel in recent years. Demand planners face a critical question: is the current just-in-time model sustainable given that transportation service reliability is structurally declining rather than cyclically constrained?

Immediate actions should include:

• Capacity agreements: Lock in carrier commitments for peak season well in advance. Spot market rates will likely spike, and availability will be limited.
• Inventory pre-positioning: Consider strategic early ordering (4-6 weeks ahead of normal peak season timing) to build minimal safety stock without fully reverting to precautionary stockpiling.
• Alternative routing analysis: Model the cost-benefit of shifting portions of peak-season volume to air freight or domestic sourcing to reduce reliance on transcontinental intermodal during tight periods.
• Service level recalibration: Reassess customer delivery commitments and identify which segments can tolerate 3-5 day extensions if transportation delays occur.

The article's conclusion is sobering: "This market has tightened without any assistance from import demand or volatility to this point—and it is fair to say that influence will only grow as the year progresses." As import demand gradually normalizes through 2026, it will collide with a trucking market that has systematically lost flexibility. Supply chain teams that assume peak season will resemble prior years—with available carrier capacity and low rejection rates—will face significant operational disruption. Those that begin contingency planning now will have options. Those that wait will be subject to whatever capacity remains.

Source: FreightWaves