Why Supply Chain Leaders Need to Pay Attention to Air Freight Market Forecasts Now

The U.S. air freight market is at an inflection point, and new analysis projecting conditions through 2034 should prompt supply chain professionals to reassess their modal strategies and carrier partnerships today. While a 10-year forecast might seem distant, the decisions you make now—about warehouse locations, carrier contracts, and capacity investments—will determine whether your organization captures opportunity or gets caught flat-footed when market conditions shift.

The timing matters because we're no longer in a simple post-pandemic recovery phase. The air freight market has stabilized after years of volatility, and demand patterns are solidifying around structural rather than temporary factors. Understanding where the market is headed helps you avoid overcommitting to capacity during cyclical peaks or underbidding contracts when you should be locking in favorable terms with carriers.

The Forces Reshaping Air Freight Demand

Several powerful trends are reshaping what the U.S. air freight market will look like in 2034, and they're worth understanding in detail.

E-commerce has fundamentally altered speed expectations. What was once a premium service is becoming table stakes. Consumers now expect 1-2 day delivery across most of the country, and retailers competing for market share are willing to pay for it. This isn't going away—it's accelerating. The question for supply chain teams is whether your cost models still treat air freight as an exception or whether you're building it into baseline assumptions.

Just-in-time manufacturing remains under pressure. Post-pandemic supply chain fragility scared executives into reconsidering inventory buffers, but companies eventually reverted to lean operations because the economics demanded it. Without sufficient lead time flexibility, manufacturers and retailers will continue relying on air freight to manage demand spikes and supply uncertainties. This structural demand floor creates a higher baseline for the market than historical norms.

International trade complexity continues driving domestic air movement. Port congestion, vessel scheduling unpredictability, and cross-border compliance requirements mean that domestic air freight often represents the most reliable way to move goods efficiently within the U.S., even for shipments that originated overseas. This dynamic locks in consistent demand that transcends typical business cycles.

What Supply Chain Teams Should Be Watching

For procurement and operations leaders, this forecast period requires attention to three specific areas:

Carrier capacity and consolidation trends. As demand grows, carriers will either add capacity or raise prices selectively. Watch whether major carriers are investing in belly freight agreements, increasing cargo-only flights, or both. Regional carriers may consolidate or exit, which affects backup options and negotiating leverage. Building relationships now with secondary carriers ahead of their potential consolidation could preserve negotiating flexibility later.

Infrastructure investments. Airports serving your origin and destination points will likely expand cargo handling facilities. Some hubs will become primary air freight gateways while others lag. Understanding which airports are investing in modern infrastructure helps you avoid routing through capacity-constrained facilities as volumes grow. This is a 10-year play—decisions made now about facility partnerships will compound.

Rate structure evolution. Current pricing heavily reflects post-pandemic normalization and fuel cost volatility. As demand stabilizes, carriers may move away from spot-market pricing toward more predictable contract structures. Lock in favorable multi-year agreements now if you can; the leverage dynamics will likely shift as demand tightens capacity.

The Path Forward

The next decade will separate supply chain organizations that planned strategically from those that reacted tactically. Air freight isn't becoming cheaper or easier—but demand is moving in one direction: up. The organizations already modeling scenarios, testing carrier partnerships, and optimizing their air freight networks will have significant competitive advantages when capacity does tighten.

Start with your current air freight volumes. Project them forward assuming modest growth in e-commerce penetration and manufacturing reshore activity. Compare that against carrier capacity commitments you have in place. Gaps in that analysis are early warning signals that should trigger discussions with procurement and logistics partners now, not in 2032.

Source: vocal.media